To avoid the worst impact of climate change, the world’s remaining fossil fuels should remain in the ground. All these means instead of using natural gas, oil, coal using renewable energy in the future. Scientists say the world must global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. By making deep cuts to fossil fuel emissions is the only way to do they speak. The new research finds out what it would take to keep most of Earth’s remaining fossil fuel underground.
On a Wednesday study published in the journal, Nature found that 90% of its coal reserves and 60% of the planet’s remaining oil and natural gas should remain in the ground by 2050. To avoid the critical climate threshold, most regions worldwide must now reach peak fossil fuel production or within the next decade. The cumulative amount of CO2 is called the carbon budget that can be released in a period while keeping within a temperature threshold, in this case, 1.5C. The world’s chances of meeting internationally agreed on target limit on global warming set out by the 2015 Paris Agreement are likely to be harmed by many fossil-fuel extractions projects in operations or planned.
At a Tuesday news conference, Dan Welsby, the lead author of the report and researcher at University College London. “Dramatic cuts in fossil fuel production are required immediately in order to move towards limiting global heating to 1.5 degrees. But the current and indicated fossil fuel production trajectories globally are moving us in the wrong direction.”
The model accounts for real-world constraints as per the researchers, mainly the speed at which global economies can move away from fossil fuels that pushed their result to the very limit of a 50% chance to stave off the worst climate change impacts. According to researchers, even more, carbon needs to stay in the ground to achieve a higher probability of staying below 1.5 degrees. Scientists say that global warming can be stopped only through severe and rapid cuts to greenhouse emissions and removing carbon from the atmosphere.
According to the authors, since their model doesn’t consider future Earth system feedbacks, nor does it consider underlying uncertainties around the deployment of technologies needed to curb emissions, their findings may be underestimated. More than 80% of global energy consumption is accounted for by fossil fuels. Scientists say that their production needs to go down substantially. Until 2050 gas and oil production need to decline by 3% each year according to the study to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. The implication will be severe for producers who are making continuous profits from fossil fuel production.
Peak production should have been reached by all-region, a promising sign since global coal production peaked in 2013. Many countries still rely on fuel. According to the study, all regions should be peaking now or by 2025 for oil. For gas, it varies depending on the area, the researcher said. The researchers have found that gas production needs to peak in parts of Caspian, Russia, the US, and Europe. This production decline is offset by increasing production to the 2030s in Africa, the Middle East, and other parts of developing Asia. The reason for increased production in those regions is due to demand in domestic growth, particularly in power generation and industry.
The study emphasizes that the fossil fuel investment made today will have an impact on the future. As the countries get serious about the climate crisis, the economies of such investments would be problematic. There are lots of transition risks and falls in demand due to the increase in clean energy technologies. According to scientists, despite efforts to cut down on greenhouse emissions, countries project an average increase in fossil fuel production of 2% annually, which needs to change immediately.
The countries with the largest fossil fuel reserves have the most significant global influence to limit climate change. Except for the US, all oil-producing regions will see substantial declines in production leading up to 2050. According to the study, the US won’t peak until 2025, before declining due to the sharp decline of oil imports and the continued use of fossil fuel in the transportation sector. By mid-century, fossil fuel burning has to stop. 80% of coal reserves, 50% of the gas reserve, and 30% of oil reserves should not be extracted by 2050 so that planet-warming of 2 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels can stop. 100% of Arctic oil and gas has to be stopped.
The latest estimates revealed higher numbers and assessed reserves out to 2100 under a 1.5-degree scenario in the new study. The findings show shares of fossil fuel reserves 89% of coal, 59% of natural gas and 58% for oil in 2050 considered economic today would be unextractable under a global 1.5-degree target.
Countries still have a long way to go according to the researchers in the matter of what is required to avoid critical climate changes. Immediate action is required in this matter. Fossil fuel investors and producers need to understand that further extraction is no longer suitable for Earth. Developed nations should help underdeveloped countries.
United State –
Coal is one of the most polluting energy sources and is the single most significant contributor to global warming and makes humans sick by polluting water and air with toxic pollution. US government has given public land to coal companies. Today 40% of the coal mined in the US belongs to taxpayers. The public land is not only the place to phase out fossil fuels, but offshore oil and gas drilling is a growing threat to climate and health.
As per research, big oil companies have profited from the exploitation of US public water and land for decades. Land and water belonging to taxpayers have been destroyed by their activities and pushed citizens to climate chaos. Industries are continuously exploiting oil and gas reserves and continue to profit at the expense of climate, wildlife, and people.
Fossil fuel, including natural gas, coal, oil for over 150 years, has been powering economies. Fossil fuels supply 80% of the world’s energy. They formed millions of years ago from the carbon-rich remains of animals and plants. The carbon-rich remains were decomposed and were compressed and heated underground. The stored carbon and other greenhouse gases are released when the fossil fuel is burnt into the atmosphere. Earth’s climate has undergone dramatic changes because of excess greenhouse in climate. The more fossil fuels are burnt, the more dramatic climate changes can be seen.
There are several alternatives are there for fossil fuel. According to leading environmentalists, solar energy, geothermal, wind, biomass, hydropower are reliable sources of renewable energy that can be used instead. Methane can also be used as a source of energy. Improving the energy efficiency of vehicles, buildings, appliances, equipment, and industrial processes is the most immediate and cost-effective way to reduce energy use and cut emissions.
The carbon emitted by fossil fuels can be collected and injected back into the Earth through carbon capture and storage. The number of such plants has to be increased. But increase in carbon capture doesn’t mean that industries should continue burning fossil fuels and release other harmful chemicals.